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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  December 18, 2012 2:00pm-3:00pm EST

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trading session. s&p up 13 and nasdaq is up 38 points. guys, over to you. >> sue, jeff kill better is with me. let's talk about bonds, three-year where? >> up 10%. really focused on regional banking. as we see higher interest rates, should see regional bankers make more money on loans. >> that will make frank sorrentino happy. our guest 10 minutes ago. that will do it for "power lunch." thanks for being with us today. >> have a great afternoon. tyler and i will see you tomorrow. "street signs" begins right now. these markets are like the energizer bunny. they keep going up. catalyst, what else? optimism about a fiscal cliff deal. we'll tell you about the one thing that could scuttle it.
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who is the worst ceo in america? herb has been laying out his top five all day. this hour will reveal the secret of the top two. pressure on video gamemakers, a prominent center making a powerful point. that brings us to the thing that makes you go hmm today. incredible stat, mandy, how much the kid is playing those games. >> indeed. markets holding gains and s&p is currently around two-month highs thank you very much. with little time left in the year, the s&p up year-to-date. by the way, if you get into the march 2009 lows, s&p has definitely doubled your money and then some. here is a stat to make you sit up and take notice. s&p goldman sachs commodity index down 1%. doesn't sound like much but that is its first annual loss since 2008 when it fell a whopping 43%. gold only up 8%, crude down about 11%.
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and as money goes into stocks and out of bonds, the 10-year rate reaches 8.1%, higher than that now, which is the highest since october. more on that with rick santelli in a second. in the meantime, bob, i want to get down to you and find out what traders are focusing on today. there's a lot happening today. >> buy into the deal. i've been saying this two weeks. there's a substantial subgroup that wants to lighten up as soon as a deal is announced. right now buy into a deal. what is the deal? plan b, c, d, they don't care. the fact there's a deal moving is the most important kind of deal. plan b sounds awful light to me. the fiscal cliff even with no deal we see a deal. that's the way traders are looking at things now. there's a seasonality with the stock market, november, december, january, strongest months of the year. let's get paid from traders time. all sorts of stocks moving up. the stocks most profitable, bank stocks, home builders, add to your winners. there's a lot of different cross
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currents going on right now. take a look at the dow, two-month highs, s&p two-month highs. 14% gains for s&p 500 for the year. good year overall for the stock market. big movers on the year, big movers today. we've got home builders with huge gains. average home builder up 100% so far this year. again, starting to look at the end of the year numbers. all these, over 100%. bank huge gains, bank of america leading the pack. bottom line, would have helped more, mandy, if there was a higher price in the dow industrials, low stock only moves a little bit. still good overall. >> we'll talk more about financials in this show. thanks so much. rick santelli, the feds trying to keep it low, keeps ticking up. >> fascinating you brought up that point because i personally believe that the fed exit will be prompted more by the market than by the fed, and i got some pushback on it.
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but i think we have an incubator test showing us that would be the case. remember, if you follow mutual fund flows it's been quite unusual all to the bond fixed income side at the expense of equities. so whether it's because generically a deal makes the economy better, whether it's this next chart and you see how correlations are tight between the bond and s&p, no matter what reason asset allocation looks like it's prompting a bigger dose of selling as you see on that line that represents 30-year bond deals. >> rick, as always, thank you. it's high time to check on the fiscal cliff deal, which seems to be slowly, painstakingly but surely moving towards a resolution. at least that's what the meter says. let's see if it's accurate and bring in steve liesman working the congressional angle. amin, do you think the meter is telling the truth? >> i think.
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we've got to get a big deal o meter at the house. big question, where is it going. saw speaker boehner came out and offer plan b, a two-track approach, they would pass an extension of the bush tax cuts for those people making a million dollars a year or less. the white house we just heard from jay carney and he said the white house, they don't like that idea of a plan b and are continuing to push for a big deal. take a listen to carney. >> there's an historic opportunity here to do something that has been set as a goal for a long time in washington, reach a bipartisan agreement on significant debt reduction on the order of $4 electrical when you take all the pieces of it and put them together. we are very close to being able to achieve that. the president has demonstrated obvious willingness to compromise. >> meanwhile house republicans are struggling with the idea
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they are going to be asked to vote on a proposal that will raise taxes. take a look at the struggle. >> the proposal to maintain it is a sound bite. >> what about the principle of raising taxes on upper income. >> i hate it. i hate it. >> they hate it. but will they vote for it? that's the big question. they are going to have another meeting on capitol hill among house republicans at 5:00 tonight. i'm told that meeting is going to be about looking at this plan b proposal to see if they really want to do that and getting a sense of where they are going in terms of scheduling now and the rest of the week. that might give us a sense whether we're going to get a deal or not this week. >> let's get auto different view on that. i want you to put your lease-o-gram. >> i've got to understand the deal-o-meter. if eamon was with us, saw what was implied by this, he would
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disagree. what is the deal? is that when we're on the d or e or a? i don't think we were as close to a deal as the dealometer is applying. >> i skeent it from here but i think we're closer to a deal than earlier in the week. >> three-quarters there. >> i think that's about right. there's till big issues to resolve. >> the one thing i love is math. two things i love. tacos and math. let's talk math. >> i'd like to talk about how they are connected. >> i want to talk about tacos. >> every time we go up the income skalt on what's defined as wealthy, you point out to viewers, there's not a lot of people that make a lot of money, 3, 4,000, couple million. you get above 500, fewer households, how can they do a deal meaningful to the deficit. >> depends what else you throw
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in. that's the key. if you do that with cap gains tax at 20%, $400,000. look, the republicans want to do it at a million. now what we know is that the obama administration, which previously had this $250,000 being imutable, 2340u something we can do, now at $400,000. this is not a base broadening exercise, this is the exact opposite. >> base narrowing. >> taking more from a specific group of people who are deemed by a certain party to be able to pay more. >> the dance, no matter what they do, cap on deductions, hit on mortgage interest at a certain price of a home, you note everything they do will be targeted through that same small group, going to get the pound of 2% flesh. they can't go to the middle class and say we're raising your taxes. >> they need to. >> could be part of a future
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deal. >> it's political suicide. >> i want to talk about one specific part of the deal, which is the gop now complaining about savings on interest. they are saying it's a joke that the administration is counting that. we did a little research. simpson-bowles counts it not as a spending cut but separate item. ryan budget counted savings on interest. whether it's a spending is a different thing. $300 million out there. administration responding to this saying you know what, if you're not going to spend it on interest, you're not going to spend it. these guys are $300 billion apart on even how much the obama administration is proposing. that's one of the reasons why i put the dealometer more left. >> 50/50. >> right in the center of the taco, right in the center of the fiscal taco. >> the combination of the two. >> i will say you're right. families at home and viewers know if you have 10 grand in
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credit card debt at 5% interest and you pay that off, that's a raise. you're spending less. i have no problem. >> that's going to be part of it. part of the argument they are going to have over numbers and definition and who is counting what. we're still trying every hour, eamon on the phone, i'm on the phone trying to get details from both sides. >> good to hear from you. thank you. >> speaking of math and numbers, here is a number for you. 78. that is the number of time before last year's debt limit debacle that congress raised or extended debt limits 1960. by the way, more than half of those times, it was done by the gop majority. america will reach the current 16.4 trillion limit in a matter of weeks, so will congress dangle the debt ceiling increase before president obama gets more spending cuts? let us bring in alice, senior fellow at the brookings institution as well as andy roth vp for government affairs at the club for growth.
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alice, good to see you again. you hate the debt limit in general. how come? >> i think the debt limit is just a silly thing to have. when you decide how much you're going to spend and how much you're going to raise in revenues, the difference between those two numbers is what you have to borrow. so you have to borrow it, after you've made those decisions. having a debt limit is just handing a tool to whoever is in the white house to harass the president every time it becomes necessary to raise the debt level. it's like saying we've run up all these bills on the credit card but we've decided not to pay it. >> i apologize, i thought you had finished there,al eggs. do you like having a debt limit and do you support raising it? >> dr. rivlin makes a good point. we're dealing with washington here. this is not common sense. we're dealing with politicians whose main objective almost
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every time they are confronted with a problem is to kick the can down the road. that's what they have been doing for decades, at least the last 12 years. tell everybody to stop, let's pause, let's confront our problems rather than keep raising the debt limit. >> generally speaking, over reacting about the deficit, once we get to normal growth it will pay itself down over time. is that school of thinking right? >> no, i don't think so. i think what we're facing is over the long run. now, not immediately. but over the next couple of decades, we have a very big problem. we have built into our federal spending commitments more spending than our revenues will afford. that's because of the combination of this big
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generation retiring, the baby boomers that everybody talks about multiplied by the cost of health care. health care is the big problem not only in the federal budget but in all budgets. if you stick with the commitments we've made, then you're spending goes up faster than your gdp and your revenues don't. so we've got to do something about that. that's what they are arguing about. they are trying to make a deal. i think they ought to make a deal that stabilizes the federal debt. but that doesn't mean we need a debt ceiling. that's just an strahanious thing. >> andy, how great a leverage do you think a debt increase would be? how much do you think congress would use it, dangle default in front of the president to try to get entitlements an things they want. >> i think it's a lot of leverage. whether the house gop uses that leverage, i don't know. i also think that the markets themselves are asking as a
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disciplinarian in this whole debate. we know the credit agencies demand $4 trillion. whether politicians find that money or not, the credit agencies are going to act accordingly. that i think is very healthy. that's what should be driving this debate, what are the pro growth solutions that will drive up revenue and the economy while also getting rid of our huge entitlement burdens. >> thank you to alice rivlin and andy roth. >> on deck, the final countdown is on, three down, two to go. herb is ready to reveal the big secret mystery of his worst two ceos of the year. no doubt he was up hemming and hawing all night on this. >> absolutely we're looking forward to that. banking, stocks that are booming. is it too late to get in, though, is the question. ♪
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antonio perez. who is next? >> this was tough. i ank rishd over it. the runner up. steve ballmer of microsoft. windows 8 was not quite the home run people thought it was going to be. one thing people don't understand, 25% of sales, only 25% of sales. windows is the face of the company. there have been so many miss steps along those lines, as if microsoft has become more of a follower than a leader. what you now have is a company with a bunch of cash that is sort of more like utility but with this really meager 3.4% yield, not even special dividend. look, by putting ballmer on this list, i believe it puts that management question of microsoft front and center. guys. >> interesting stuff. i'm sure you agonized over it, herb. don't go anywhere. i would like to dive more into
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this. does steve ballmer believe or belong on herb's naughty list. let's bring in ed maguire, microsoft analyst. ed, you heard herb and with the exception of a few brief blips above and below, this is a stock that's been stuck between $20 and $30 for the better part of a decade. is it time for steve ballmer to go? >> well, i think there's a good case to be made that given the assets, he's been a good custodian. has he been a visionary compared to someone like steve jobs, i think the question is not. certainly microsoft has held up a lot better than a number of other tech companies. he hasn't done a lot of dumb acquisitions. they are somewhat hamstrung in terms of a special dividend by the amount of cash offshore. i'd argue that a ceo like ballmer probably gets more of a lion's share of the blame for what structurally have been challenges in microsoft's core markets.
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>> microsoft likes to point out that the servers and tools part of the business has helped buffer the blow but doesn't get the attention it should get. then of course you have xbox and other parts of the business. still you have what appears to be a company. you mention the word custodian. that's not what you want to see as ceo. you want to see execution. you don't want to see failed products. if it's just 25% of the business windows, 25% of the business, you still wonder if they actually missed a great opportunity in terms of avoiding others doing to them what they did to ibm and others over the years. >> sure. those are fair points. i would say there's a long game at work here. what microsoft is navigating is longer term switch from being products to products and services company. so windows 8 not being a hit out of the gate. i think big expectations were probably misplaced. this needs to be a gradual process where they have to balance an ecosystem of users
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and oems. given the portfolio they have, it's awfully difficult to be an elephant that can dance. ibm has proven that the company can really manage a turnaround by engineering a big strategy shift. microsoft, i held they have been undervalued in terms of the enterprise franchise. i still think it's too early to call them a loser on the endpoint game. >> all good points but enough to justify a buy, which is what you've got on microsoft right now. >> i do. i think that the visibility of the cash flow, the dividend and particularly the product cycle and enterprise side here is reinforcing a broader value proposition to its customers and to the market. it would give windows a little bit of time, i think we'll start to see improvement as well. >> i like steve ballmer. i've met him many times. nice guy, smart guy, whatever.
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if you're a ceo of a big company, stock price is the report card. five years ibm up 75%, oracle 54%, microsoft down 22%. ibm and oracle also considered annuity type businesses. >> that's certainly a fair point. i think if you were to strip away, of course, the industry context from microsoft and look purely at their financials, there does seem to be a bit of a disconnect in the stock price given growth in earnings and financials overall. i think there's a messaging issue at work. certainly he's not the most telegenic of advocates for microsoft and would like to see the company combine forces really across what has been quite a silent organization. if that's his failure, i can't disagree with that. >> do you have any visibility at all in terms of how much longer he might remain in that position and what candidates, if any, there are to succeed him? >> there have been a lot of
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conspiracy theories floating around about potential acquisitions and successors. you know, he's nearing an age where a lot of his competitors have retired. i think he will look to step down when he's got something to be proud of. hopefully that's not going to be too long. there have been discussions of stephen elop as a successor. >> he was on my list last year. >> went to nokia. >> some say he should be on the list this year. >> a two-step process. can you fill in the blanks there. >> bouncing around. >> musical chairs. try and sit down when the music stops. thanks so much, ed. >> while we're on the subject. let's give credit, microsoft basically invented the way we compute today. it has done a lot of great things. it put computers on everybody's desktop. check out microsoft wall of shame. remember these? nobody is going to plame you if
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you don't. zune, kin, microsoft bob, neither do i, web tv, you prove, biggest mistake they ever made was the paper clip. looks like you're writing a resume. would you like your co-workers to see? >> i don't think there's a single person in the world that liked the paper clip. >> you couldn't get rid of the guy. >> twitter verse, tell me if you liked it, i don't think anybody did. >> the big reveal, who will be the single worst ceo of the year? >> okay. let's send it to bertha coombs in the meantime for a quick market flash what are you watching, bertha? >> a bit of a spike on whirlpool. looks like the association appliancemaker releasing data that shows appliances looking pretty good. told data, up 1% compared to
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expectations which was looking for a fall whirlpool very nice looking chart at a new two and a half year high up 117% year-to-date. >> bertha, thank you. coming up, herb will crown the aforementioned worst ceo of the year. >> instagram revolt on social media. does the photo app really have the right to sell your pictures? tdd# 1-800-345-2550 you should've seen me today. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 when the spx crossed above its 50-day moving average, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i saw the trend.
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banks are booming. once an unloved sector, hitting a new 52-week high up 27% this year. in fact, s&p financial sector at a one and a half year high. bank of america and citigroup trading at 52-week highs. is it too late to get in? bring in paul miller, banker analyst. great to have you on the show once again. is all this love for the banks warranted and do they worry more? >> i think they will trade well especially if we sold the fiscal cliff issue, into the new year, positive gdp growth. a lot of people claim both are recovering housing market. as long as we get good news from
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there, you'll see these stocks run. >> which are your favorites. >> i still like wells fargo, much more expensive than bank of america or citi. we like anything attached to the housing market. wells is more attached to the housing market. b of a does do originations but nowhere near the size of wells fargo. they got out of a big chunk of the business last year. they were trying to fix their balance sheet. we still like those names really attached to the housing market, especially mortgage banking, wells, usb and pnc. >> feds will keep these levels for two and a half years. are banks going to be throwing cash bonfires, rolling in it. >> that's the problem with big portfolio lenders. we wrote a report, you want a mortgage bank be careful on the portfolio side that name will continue to come under pressure. doesn't mean earnings will kplooelt completely collapse but you're not going to see earnings growth out of those big balance sheets. where you're going to see earnings growth people in the
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mortgage bank that profitability is really strong. on the balance sheet side, under pressure with rates this low. that's why i think some people like these names are feeling the fed will loosen up sooner because maybe we'll get solid gdp growth into 2013. >> paula pleasure. see you in the new year. up next on "street signs," street talk. we have found five feel good stories for you to hear. >> later on today, things that make you go hmm. scary how much time your kids are spending playing video games.
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all right. before we get to street talk, the dow is higher, has come down
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in the last few minutes. how come? harry reid spoke in d.c. senator reid didn't really say much. market hanging on every word of this fiscal cliff. we need cliffy the paper clip. let's go to what senator reid may or may not have said eamon. >> at a press conference he does every week, he came out and accused republicans of walking away from negotiations here. i asked him, republicans are saying they are not walking away from negotiations, they are just setting up plan b. he looked me in the eye and said if that's not walking away, i don't know what walking away is. harry reid upset now that house republicans talking about an idea of plan b here. we're also hearing from mitch mcconnell, republican leader talking to reporters now. get you a sense of what he's saying as well. harry reid putting pressure back on house republicans. i would view all this as
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negotiating rhetoric here as each side tries to put political blame squarely in the lap of the other side. >> eamon, thank you. i know we'll get more later on. >> for all those eager to get to street talk, you're in luck. feel good stocks. we need good news. why don't we start with arbitron and nielsen. m and a. nielsen buying arbitron, 26% premium here. nielsen, rating service wants arbitron's rating service. another two hours of media consumption so they can learn about our viewing habits. >> greenbrier industries, what are they up to. >> railcarmaker. icahn propped the rail company buy greenbrier. this is a plan he had five years
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ago, kind of reviesing the past. up 5% since announced icahn acquired another 10 pours. >> mentioned twice on "street signs" today, what's happening with nokia. >> up 4%. it's not getting a lot of attention but cnet skber viewed the ceo and opened the door to a possibility of a deal or more of a deal with verizon and said, quote, planning exciting things with verizon as well. talking about an at&t thing. he says nokia has to move with more urgency. >> you think? okay. we've got one of those stories where we're moving higher on strangely bad news. baker hughes. >> cut sales and margins yet stock is higher. even got a downgrade and stock is higher, lower on shore drilling activity. however, may have been a case of the cuts, which were expected perhaps, because their biggest
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competit competitor schlumberger cut its. >> do you think mcdonald's jumping on the bandwagon because we all need to be shopping and eating 24 hours. >> i don't know why this bothers me so much. does it bother you? >> yes. >> mcdonald's asking franchisees to be open on christmas day? if you want to go, who cares, but it's the workers. they will probably get double time but still, minimum wage not that much. mcdonald's, you have to say, can we just enjoy a day or two off. >> this is the way things are going. retailers leading the trail. bob pisani told us on "street signs" how home builders are 2012 strongest index. the question, does that signal a housing rebound? let's bring in president and ceo of team investments. great to have you here. >> thank you so much. >> what do you think? we've had a pretty good rebound and stocks going gang busters,
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how much more can we eke out. >> nobody will see a boom. we'll see a lot of short sales. banks are realizing they make more money short selling than for clothesing so we'll see a lot of short sales. a lot of traditional sales. as the market rises, those people that couldn't sell are going to be able to sell. those are two really good signs. we're going to see interest rates stay low for the first half. >> they will stay low but can we take advantage of it. i applied for refi, i pay bills on time, i still haven't closed, so long to get documentation done. >> i think that's why we'll see them stay low through the first half. what they really need to do is raise those rates a hair and lower criteria for lending. we need to see that happen. >> if you needed to advise viewers if they were going to invest, where should they look. >> arizona steel is going to
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stay strong. nevada coming back as a filibuster. in march they will release that moratorium and people will buy in nevada like crazy. georgia is another one. it's been down, it's going to come back up. and miami is a great market. >> feels like people are starting to believe in housing once again. >> you can touch it, feel it and see that money come into your account every day with a cash flow property. >> finally got some height. >> i feel like "follow the yellow brick road ♪ >> sorry. i'll wear flats. >> you don't have apologize, i was making fun of her. >> thank you so much. >> on a serious note, video games back in the spotlight, the wake of the newtown school shooting. next up, stats on how much time our kids are spending playing video games, in front of a tv, on a screen. we'll talk to an analyst. is it time for a crackdown on violent games? you decide. we'll bring you this story.
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she's here exclusively with us today. >> also home depot founder tells us what he thinks will happen if the fiscal cliff deal isn't reached soon. we asked rand paul if he would raise taxes at all. the closing bell at the new york stock exchange. look forward to seeing you then. brian. >> bill, thanks very much. see you then. time for things that make you go hmm. today it's a serious one. the average kid spends 53 hours a week, playing video games, watching tv, in front of a screen, most of those hours spent gaming. there are more than 5 million kids that spend more than 40 hours a week playing video games. along with gun control video game toronto and center in the
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wake of the newtown shooting. the shooter was a big video game player. the effects can be detrimental. >> very often these men have had an almost hypnotic involvement in some sort of violence in our entertainment culture, particularly violent video games, then they obtain guns. >> all right. serious topic. julia borsten with us. julia, break down some of the numbers around this industry. >> well, brian, need less to say adam lanza wasn't the only young man to spend his time playing violent video games. in know the top three were violent games where the player is a shooter and his challenge is to kill of the most popular video game franchise of all time is one adam lanza spent hours playing every day, call of duty. the most recent version of the game made $1 billion in november with more than 150 million hours logged playing the game on xbox
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live and playstation network. various studies have london, england, violent video game playing to higher levels of aggression. we've reached out to all the major video game companies, not one has commented, several directing us to entertainment software association which did not respond to repeated request for comment though it has posted various studies denying a link between video games and violence. not everyone is silent on this issue. a gamer blog called gamer fit nation is proposing a day of online shooter cease-fire december 21st. there's still plenty of questions whether that would start to be enough. >> absolutely. everyone has a passionate view on this topic. thank you very much. meantime, todd hazelton from techno buffalo. i believe you're a gamer yourself, todd, you have personal experience wit. what do you think? >> i am. it's a sensitive subject. what it comes down to is parents need to control how often their kids are playing games.
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that's a lot, what brian said there. they need to go to esrb, see the ratings and know what kind of games they are playing. i've played black ops, it's a fun game, a lot of my friends play it. it looks violent here but it's team oriented and social. does that mean it's not violent, no, of course -- >> i've played games, too. you're exactly right. once you reach a certain age you're constructed as a human being. your morality and ethics are established. 90% of video games contain some sort of violence, even those rated e for everyone. if you're 9 years old playing this versus 20, it could shape you. >> i guess it totally could, especially a 9-year-old. they are still kind of developing, brains are developing. >> i know 9 years old that play these games. >> parents need to be sure how often they are playing this and the type of games they are
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playing. any kid can technically go on amazon and buy it. they are not being checked for it. it comes down to parents. if we want to discuss guns, it's mental health. it's a game, entertainment. are you going to stoop kids from playing paint ball, that's violent. >> what is the right level of censorship. i hate to say it. i'm a parent myself. you can't always trust the parent. you can't always trust the kid. you might have certain limits as a parent but kids get around it. >> the right level of censorship is listen what esrb are saying. i know a buddy there who writes the reviews. go through and see what they are saying about the game and decide if it's appropriate for your kid. >> what about an automatic shutoff switch. i did it on apple. shuts down for an apple. >> they have limitations of parental controls where you can turn off level of violence. >> leave it there, todd hazelton, thank you very much.
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>> thank you. coming up next, the big moment. herb greenberg reveals his pick for the winner, ie, the worst ceo of the year. >> this was an 11th hour decision. we've got the big reveal next. what's next? he's going to apply testosterone to his underarm. axiron, the only underarm treatment for low t, can restore testosterone levels back to normal in most men. axiron is not for use in women or anyone younger than 18. axiron can transfer to others through direct contact. women, especially those who are or who may become pregnant,
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and children should avoid contact where axiron is applied as unexpected signs of puberty in children or changes in body hair or increased acne in women may occur. report these signs and symptoms to your doctor if they occur. tell your doctor about all medical conditions and medications. do not use if you have prostate or breast cancer. serious side effects could include increased risk of prostate cancer; worsening prostate symptoms; decreased sperm count; ankle, feet, or body swelling; enlarged or painful breasts; problems breathing while sleeping; >> leave it there, todd and blood clots in the legs. common side effects include skin redness or irritation where applied, increased red blood cell count, headache, diarrhea, vomiting, and increase in psa. hazelton, thank you very much. and for a 30-day free trial, go to axiron.com.
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all right. time for the moment that we've all been waiting for. herb greenberg's vote for worst ceo of 2012. mr. g., who is it? >> brian this, year's winner, wanted someone more surprising, big are, but the most obvious, andrew mason of groupon. this is just so obvious. this was that really overhyped ipo that was questionable from the very start. with its first ipo filing with the s.e.c., that's where mason in a letter to potential shareholders said groupon should be judged differently than other companies. well, given the collapse of the stock price, the accounting restatements and the implosion of its fundamentals it appears that wasn't the case. this is now, in my view, a public company in search of a business that will stick, or it's a public company that's hoping to get acquired by someone. on top of that, mason is almost too goofy to run a company. guys, it's one thing for herb
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kelleher when he was with southwest to do that, but he was very successful and who could get away with it. in this case you've got to be kind of serious here. >> and your list brings up a great point, because you have pinkus from zynga, zuckerberg not on the list. listen, if you're a tech genius, it doesn't make you a good ceo, right, because being a tech leader and great coder, being a ceo is about consensus-building a lot of times. it's about relationships. it's about sales. it's not about coding. >> brian, it's about execution. remember, this was a software developer. this is about clear strategy and execution, and if you can't do that, you shouldn't be in the job, and the surprise here is that he's still on the job. you know, he had that issue that maybe he was going to lose that job. >> yeah, pardon for us being contrarians, but does herb's call just maybe, maybe, maybe mean it is time to buy groupon? a contrarian indicator if you like. joining us is robbie agrawal and daniel ernst who by the way has
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a hold on groupon. back on april you were on "street signs" and you said groupon was going to zero. you sticking to that? >> sticking to that. down 70% since i made that call. i've been pretty right on about this company. >> dan, you're not bailing. you've got a hold >> i think there's a real business there. as the preamble said, it's about execution. i think groupon remains relatively misunderstood. groupon is local advertising on a global scale. right now they have an opportunity. a lot of the competitors have fallen by the wayside. there's a real opportunity for these guys to execute, but my issue with them is actually not their core business, is that they themselves have unwound the reliance in the business who are investing in the goods products which has a 2% margin versus 80% gross margin for the advertising business. >> here's the real deal. roque, if dan is correct and there's a real business there and you really believe that, is
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andrew mace on-the-guy who is going to get it there is. >> they keep talking about real business in local, that it's a multi-trillion dollar opportunity which are lines they have been use since the ipo, and they are shifting over to this goods thing which today i saw an iphone-controlled nerf missile launcher. i don't know who wants, that maybe you do, may look good soent, but most people don't want that, and andrew mason are he has not shown, you know, any leadership skills. just been a goofball throughout the company, and, you know, one of the things that you look at as a ceo, who do they surround themselves with? mark zuckerberg, got sheryl sandberg in place who is an excellent coo. andrew mason has been through several coos in the time he's been there. >> that's fair to say. >> something about groupon that we don't know. they may surprise us. they don't have to guess what we like. their customers are known to them. they click on mani/pedis or
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flying lessons or whatever it might be. is there a big reveal that groupon has that resets the stock? >> i think that's right. in theory they don't have to guess because they have such a global marketplace of local merchants and such a marketplace and ecosystem. >> hold on, they are like mastercard in some ways, right? >> i disagree. >> they know what we're buying. >> i'm going to disagree. >> the issue on goods becomes not whether they are that mastercard. they actually have to make product selection which means eventually, right now it's a stub business, but eventually that could bring on the issue is they have inventory risk. they have to build shipping and management execution. they are having trouble, as i pointed out, executing their core business. the business goods is an opportunity but way too much of a distraction for them. that's why it does worry us. >> final word for you, herb. if they are having trouble executing, it falls down to the ceo, and if they want to move forward, i don't see how they can move forward with this ceo. if that's what we're talking about, in the end if there's a business, has to be somebody
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else. >> not the man for the job. got to leave it there, rocky, dan, herb, thanks very much. now out to bertha coombs for a market flash. >> we're hearing from investors in gunmaker scott's today, smith & wesson and sturm ruger an vanguard a top holder in smith & wesson with about a 6.3% stake and reuters is quoted as saying it's deeply saddened by the shootings in connecticut. as of september 30th, according to filings, they have had a 7% stake in sturm ruger making it the fourth largest stakeholder with 1.35 million shares. back to you >> thank you very much for that, bertha coombs. coming up next, the instagram revolt. i always wait until the last minute.
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by december 22nd why they have a raise your rate cd. tonight our guest, thomas sargent. nobel laureate in economics, and one of the most cited economists in the world. professor sargent, can you tell me what cd rates will be in two years? no. if he can't, no one can. that's why ally has a raise your rate cd. ally bank. your money needs an ally.
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at this stage what we're seeing on the dow is a gain of 95 points. if it does get to triple digits though, folks, it would be its first back-to-back triple-digit gain in nearly five months. a good gain by the nasdaq, up over 5%, techs leading the gain and the s&p 500 not too shabby either. >> let's wrap up with this. if you're on instagram do listen up. the photo-sharing site owned by facebook just changed its privacy policy and will soon have the right to sell your information and pictures, ie, you don't own you

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